Updated on Friday 05 June 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 108211 (+1036) 1872660 (+21140) 485002 (+5744) 1279447 (+14360)
United Kingdom 39987 (+176) 283079 (+1809) 1219 (+7) 241873 (+1626)
Brazil 34021 (+1473) 614941 (+30925) 254963 (+16346) 325957 (+13106)
Italy 33689 (+88) 234013 (+177) 161895 (+957) 38429 (-868)
France 29068 (+44) 189569 (-2761) 70094 (+521) 90407 (-3326)
Spain 27133 (+5) 240660 (+334) 150376 (+0) 63151 (+329)
Mexico 12545 (+816) 105680 (+4442) 74758 (+2078) 18377 (+1548)
Belgium 9548 (+26) 58767 (+82) 16048 (+89) 33171 (-33)
Germany 8635 (+33) 184472 (+351) 167909 (+456) 7928 (-138)
Iran 8071 (+59) 164270 (+3574) 127485 (+2279) 28714 (+1236)
Canada 7717 (+138) 95269 (+628) 52184 (+678) 35368 (-188)
India 6363 (+275) 226713 (+9889) 108450 (+4379) 111900 (+5235)
Netherlands 6009 (+13) 47148 (+209) 180 (+0) 40959 (+196)
Russia 5376 (+168) 440538 (+8823) 204197 (+8638) 230965 (+17)
Peru 5031 (+137) 183198 (+4284) 76228 (+3909) 101939 (+238)
China 4638 (+0) 84171 (+11) 79415 (+11) 118 (+0)
Turkey 4630 (+21) 167410 (+988) 131778 (+926) 31002 (+41)
Sweden 4562 (+20) 41883 (+1080) 0 (+0) 37321 (+1060)
Ecuador 3486 (+0) 40966 (+0) 20019 (+0) 17461 (+0)
Switzerland 1921 (+0) 30913 (+20) 28600 (+0) 392 (+20)
Pakistan 1770 (+82) 85264 (+4801) 30128 (+1205) 53366 (+3514)
Indonesia 1721 (+23) 28818 (+585) 8892 (+486) 18205 (+76)
Ireland 1664 (+5) 25142 (+31) 22698 (+0) 780 (+26)
Portugal 1455 (+8) 33592 (+331) 20323 (+244) 11814 (+79)
Chile 1356 (+81) 118292 (+4664) 21305 (-300) 95631 (+4883)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 386498 (+5189) 6548814 (+124339) 2790548 (+64970)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 381427 ( +2435) 6545726 ( +89074) 2848374 ( +58816)
Sat 06 June 2020 383727 ( +2300) 6632320 ( +86594) 2905521 ( +57148)
Sun 07 June 2020 385896 ( +2169) 6716334 ( +84014) 2960871 ( +55350)
Mon 08 June 2020 387938 ( +2042) 6797686 ( +81352) 3014314 ( +53442)
Tue 09 June 2020 389859 ( +1921) 6876312 ( +78626) 3065760 ( +51446)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 4638 (+0) 84171 (+11) 79415 (+11)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84085 ( +0) 78392 ( +0)
Sat 06 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84085 ( +0) 78392 ( +0)
Sun 07 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84085 ( +0) 78392 ( +0)
Mon 08 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84086 ( +0) 78392 ( +0)
Tue 09 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84086 ( +0) 78392 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 27133 (+5) 240660 (+334) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 27633 ( +5) 237384 ( +101) 155679 ( +357)
Sat 06 June 2020 27638 ( +5) 237476 ( +92) 156013 ( +334)
Sun 07 June 2020 27642 ( +4) 237560 ( +84) 156326 ( +313)
Mon 08 June 2020 27645 ( +4) 237636 ( +76) 156620 ( +293)
Tue 09 June 2020 27648 ( +3) 237706 ( +69) 156894 ( +274)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 33689 (+88) 234013 (+177) 161895 (+957)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 33339 ( +28) 231803 ( +114) 162290 ( +1291)
Sat 06 June 2020 33365 ( +26) 231906 ( +104) 163517 ( +1227)
Sun 07 June 2020 33389 ( +24) 232001 ( +95) 164681 ( +1165)
Mon 08 June 2020 33410 ( +22) 232087 ( +86) 165786 ( +1105)
Tue 09 June 2020 33430 ( +20) 232166 ( +79) 166832 ( +1047)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 39987 (+176) 283079 (+1809) 1219 (+7)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 39263 ( +106) 274166 ( +654) 1551 ( +37)
Sat 06 June 2020 39360 ( +98) 274769 ( +603) 1589 ( +38)
Sun 07 June 2020 39450 ( +90) 275326 ( +556) 1629 ( +39)
Mon 08 June 2020 39532 ( +82) 275838 ( +513) 1669 ( +40)
Tue 09 June 2020 39607 ( +75) 276311 ( +473) 1710 ( +41)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 108211 (+1036) 1872660 (+21140) 485002 (+5744)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 106656 ( +433) 1849632 ( +11688) 489641 ( +7632)
Sat 06 June 2020 107054 ( +398) 1860628 ( +10996) 496486 ( +6845)
Sun 07 June 2020 107421 ( +367) 1870959 ( +10330) 502583 ( +6097)
Mon 08 June 2020 107758 ( +337) 1880651 ( +9692) 507980 ( +5397)
Tue 09 June 2020 108068 ( +310) 1889733 ( +9082) 512730 ( +4750)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 29068 (+44) 189569 (-2761) 70094 (+521)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 28341 ( +4) 182989 ( +19) 69236 ( +194)
Sat 06 June 2020 28345 ( +4) 183006 ( +16) 69415 ( +179)
Sun 07 June 2020 28348 ( +3) 183020 ( +15) 69581 ( +166)
Mon 08 June 2020 28350 ( +3) 183033 ( +13) 69734 ( +153)
Tue 09 June 2020 28353 ( +2) 183045 ( +11) 69874 ( +141)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 8635 (+33) 184472 (+351) 167909 (+456)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 8545 ( +9) 182596 ( +105) 165490 ( +194)
Sat 06 June 2020 8553 ( +8) 182691 ( +96) 165665 ( +174)
Sun 07 June 2020 8561 ( +8) 182779 ( +87) 165822 ( +157)
Mon 08 June 2020 8568 ( +7) 182858 ( +80) 165964 ( +142)
Tue 09 June 2020 8574 ( +6) 182931 ( +73) 166091 ( +128)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 6009 (+13) 47148 (+209) 180 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 5936 ( +3) 46389 ( +38) 241 ( +7)
Sat 06 June 2020 5939 ( +3) 46423 ( +35) 248 ( +7)
Sun 07 June 2020 5942 ( +3) 46455 ( +32) 255 ( +7)
Mon 08 June 2020 5944 ( +2) 46484 ( +29) 262 ( +7)
Tue 09 June 2020 5947 ( +2) 46511 ( +27) 270 ( +7)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 9548 (+26) 58767 (+82) 16048 (+89)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 9209 ( +2) 56735 ( +20) 15867 ( +26)
Sat 06 June 2020 9211 ( +2) 56753 ( +18) 15891 ( +24)
Sun 07 June 2020 9212 ( +2) 56769 ( +16) 15913 ( +22)
Mon 08 June 2020 9214 ( +1) 56783 ( +14) 15933 ( +20)
Tue 09 June 2020 9215 ( +1) 56796 ( +13) 15951 ( +18)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 4562 (+20) 41883 (+1080) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 4552 ( +29) 41096 ( +615) 4470 ( +0)
Sat 06 June 2020 4579 ( +27) 41705 ( +609) 4470 ( +0)
Sun 07 June 2020 4604 ( +25) 42308 ( +603) 4470 ( +0)
Mon 08 June 2020 4627 ( +23) 42903 ( +595) 4470 ( +0)
Tue 09 June 2020 4649 ( +22) 43490 ( +587) 4470 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 1117 (+2) 25048 (+361) 12227 (+213)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 1100 ( +5) 25181 ( +254) 11941 ( +142)
Sat 06 June 2020 1105 ( +4) 25422 ( +242) 12074 ( +133)
Sun 07 June 2020 1109 ( +4) 25652 ( +230) 12198 ( +124)
Mon 08 June 2020 1113 ( +4) 25870 ( +218) 12314 ( +116)
Tue 09 June 2020 1116 ( +3) 26076 ( +206) 12422 ( +108)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 1921 (+0) 30913 (+20) 28600 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 1912 ( +0) 30484 ( +1) 28307 ( +9)
Sat 06 June 2020 1912 ( +0) 30485 ( +1) 28315 ( +8)
Sun 07 June 2020 1912 ( +0) 30486 ( +1) 28322 ( +7)
Mon 08 June 2020 1912 ( +0) 30487 ( +1) 28328 ( +6)
Tue 09 June 2020 1913 ( +0) 30488 ( +1) 28333 ( +5)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 34021 (+1473) 614941 (+30925) 254963 (+16346)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 33936 ( +825) 631090 ( +24570) 257587 ( +10306)
Sat 06 June 2020 34735 ( +799) 655820 ( +24731) 267992 ( +10405)
Sun 07 June 2020 35506 ( +771) 680650 ( +24829) 278471 ( +10479)
Mon 08 June 2020 36248 ( +743) 705514 ( +24864) 288997 ( +10526)
Tue 09 June 2020 36962 ( +714) 730349 ( +24835) 299545 ( +10548)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 04 June 2020 8071 (+59) 164270 (+3574) 127485 (+2279)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 7921 ( +29) 165008 ( +2474) 119830 ( +850)
Sat 06 June 2020 7948 ( +27) 167455 ( +2448) 120657 ( +827)
Sun 07 June 2020 7974 ( +26) 169871 ( +2416) 121462 ( +805)
Mon 08 June 2020 7998 ( +24) 172250 ( +2379) 122245 ( +783)
Tue 09 June 2020 8021 ( +23) 174586 ( +2336) 123006 ( +762)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.